These day a lot people searching for the true intentions of Meles and Isayas in Somalia. Finally, somre writers are making distinction between the Ethiopian national interest and the Meles machinations in Somalia. But, the intention of Eritrea is not yet clear.

The conventional wisdom or the literal understanding of the geopolitics is that Isayas wants to remove the Woyane regime and replace it with a regime that a puppet of Eritrea. On the other hand, the logic goes, Meles wants to remove Isyayas regime and replace it with a Tigrean puppet regime. These are tall orders. It is difficult to believe these reasoning.

The real intentions have to do with Badme. Isayas could not get the support of western forces to force Meles to sign the demaraction of the border. As a result Isayas so angry throwing temper tantrum. Actually, the west calls Isayas actions, assertive policy - intervention in Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia. Meles wants to create enough noise and problem in the Horn of Africa so as to get the attention of the UN and the West. He is playing the 'local bully' game. HE WANTS GAIN SOME LEVEL OF REGIONAL IMPORTANCE.

The real intention of Meles is to isolate, starve, and encircle Isayas so as to force him to settle the Badme issue on his (Meles) terms. This is now becoming very clear because Meles is forcing Isayas to fully align with the islamic world away from the west. If Meles succeeds in securing port use in Djibuti and Hargessa, he would kill Assab. We all know that Isayas is not going to achieve his final aim through military means.

Where does this leave forces like the Somalis and AFD? As we speak, they are mere billiard balls on the pool table. They are mere stratergic resources of the NEW BADME WAR. As soon as the west or some other force begins to intervene in the Badme conflict, they will be thrown. This is true because these proxy puppets are mere bargaining chips, tools of quid pro quo... dismantle these elements, I will dismantle these.

In humble view, the very basic process is a new Badme war by proxy.

The Second Badme War By Proxy

These day a lot of people are searching for the true intentions of Meles and Isayas in Somalia. Finally, somre writers are making distinction between the Ethiopian national interest and the Meles machinations in Somalia. But, the intention of Eritrea is not yet clear.

The conventional wisdom or the literal understanding of the geopolitics is that Isayas wants to remove the Woyane regime and replace it with a regime that is a puppet of Eritrea. On the other hand, the logic goes, Meles wants to remove Isyayas regime and replace it with a Tigrean puppet regime. These are tall orders. It is difficult to believe the reasonings.

The real intentions have to do with Badme. Isayas could not get the support of western powers to force Meles to sign the demaraction of the border. As a result he so angry throwing temper tantrum. Actually, the west calls Isayas actions, assertive policy - intervention in Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia.

Isayas wants to create enough noise and problem in the Horn of Africa so as to get the attention of the UN and the West. He is playing the 'local bully' game. HE WANTS GAIN SOME LEVEL OF REGIONAL IMPORTANCE.

The real intention of Meles is to isolate, starve, and encircle Isayas so as to force latter to settle the Badme issue on his (Meles) terms. This is now becoming very clear because Meles is forcing Isayas to fully align with the islamic world away from the west.

If Meles succeeds in securing port use in Djibuti and Hargessa, he would kill Assab. We all know that Isayas is not going to achieve his final aim through military means.

Where does this leave forces like the Somalis and AFD? As we speak, they are mere billiard balls on the pool table. They are mere stratergic resources of the NEW BADME WAR.

As soon as the west or some other force begins to intervene in the Badme conflict, they will be thrown out. This is true because these proxy puppets are mere bargaining chips in the hands or Meles and Isayas, tools of quid pro quo... dismantle these elements, I will dismantle these.

In my humble view, the very basic process is a new Badme war by proxy.

Askale,

Let me explain why your observation is not only wrong, but it seems to be designed to support Meles's regime. It appears from the utset that you appear anti Meles on the surface but shape your argument to create a strategic advantage to his regime.

Let me first adress your contention: "The real intentions have to do with Badme..... The real intention of Meles is to isolate, starve, and encircle Isayas so as to force him to settle the Badme issue on his (Meles) terms. This is now becoming very clear because Meles is forcing Isayas to fully align with the islamic world away from the west." First, the contention Meles's intention to get into Somalia is pure fiction. Pure fabrication. Second, it gives people the wrong impression that Meles's primary intention is to fight for the interest of Ethiopia.


Then you followed one nonsensical argument with another: "If Meles succeeds in securing port use in Djibuti and Hargessa, he would kill Assab. We all know that Isayas is not going to achieve his final aim through military means."

This is an old news. Asab is long dead. No one is in Assab.

Then came your attack on AFD and Somalis. It is too obvious you are trying to discredit AFD. You continued: "As we speak, they are mere billiard balls on the pool table. They are mere stratergic resources of the NEW BADME WAR."

First of all it is Isayas who is going against Meles agressively. This is because Isayas knows Meles is at his weakest point. Meles has tried his best to avoid confronting Isayas. Second, if you think Badme is the main reason Isayas is going after Meles, you are a morone (Moron with "e" a la Melkamu).

You can impress the politically novice and the hired guns. But you are obviously Meles's stooge. You appear against Meles on the surface, but underneath the surface you are arguing to prop up Meles and to weaken the opposition.

From the Bench.

Suspense and politics!!

This web site will tempt you to go to INVESTIGATION SCHOOL or turn you into MYSREY WRITER. That is, if you have the time, money, patience and determination.

VOILA!!

PS.
These days. no matter how good it gets, I have lost the patience to read AD'S POSTS, THE LAST FOUR DAYS.

IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT AD's POSTS SHOULD BE DISREGARDED, BUT EVERYBODY'S REASON FOR VISITING THIS WEB SITE VARIES.

Ankasa,

Here is we go again. Your anger tells me I keep hitting some truth. The problem with you is this. You have no idea, no clue. Go back and read what you just wrote. You said nothing as than telling me that I am wrong. Any idiot can say that. Did you tell the world what Meles' intention is? No. Did tell us what Isayas intention is ? No. Because you don't know, you have no clue what they are. Dedeb zim sil awaki yimesilal. Why does Isays want to destroy Meles? What is the objective of destroying Meles? You have no clue. You are angry because I precisely zeroed in on the nature of the pawns. DEDEB ZIM SIL AWAKI YIMESILAL.

Askale Dama, I admire you as a good writer with twisted words, but when it comes to regional politics you don't know nothing, especially about Eritrea's intention. As you said Meles has been tried so hard to isolated eritrea. But did he succed?? NOT at all. He tried to isolate eritrea by forming alliance with Sudan & Yemen with the help of U.S. However, Issayas has a big influence in the region. Look! what he is doing in Sudan, Somalia & Ethiopia, also warming relationship with Yemen & Djibuti. Sudan, Yemen & Djibuti are supporting issayas' policy in Somalia. Issayas knows that meles can't stay without CIA support even a single day, and that's why he is striking against U.S interest to force them to change their policy in the region. LOOK! how Issayas powerful is...When he is playing a big role in sudan's politics, Bush just called this week SPLM leader Salva Kirr & Darfur rebel's leader to white house to turn their back to their supporter king maker issays. Now tell me Askale Dama, who is powerful with huge influence in East Africa?? Who has a good vision for the interst of the region & Ethiopia?? Who is against ethnic policy?? I guess you know the answer...Askale Dama, if you are a genuine person who writes with love of your country, please write the truth. Do your homework first and learn more about regional politics before you write what in your mind is.
Thx.

Eritrea has a wealth of experience on how to affect super power interests in the region. Those nations that down looked Eritrea's ability to affect their interest hopefully will think again. The full-fledged USSR interference in EPLF and Derg war was a good lesson for any outsider forces that Eritrea is not your Liberia or Somalia for that matter. America has been redeculing Eritrea for a while now..it chose to support weyane forces who r violating the international decision.....US did whatever it did to weaken Eritrea...now Eritrea is showing them.
No matter how small it is, it could influence America’s interest. Somalia is case in point.

Ye arogit neger, Biluat biluat algeba alat. Her conspiracy theory is going no where, yet she comes back again and again to the same thing.

Arogite, please retire, I would not advice you to go back to school to study Politics 101 as you are too old.

Askale Dama,

Do you think Ethiopia will be able to secure Djibouti port and abandon Asab in the near future?

looking forward to your intelligent analysis.

Ankasa,

The power of Isayas is mirage with no economic, military, demographic, energy ... foundation. It is mere chess game of local dictators. Eritrea is a very poor very small kingdom used for military outpost and vacation destination....etc

Save the power of Isayas. The rest you are repeating what I have been saying. You are still unable to answer the question.

What is Isayas' intention? What is his objective? I stated my view. If you have a different knowledge, ley us hear it. But you don't have one.

So stop using the word moron. The result is tizibt.

By the way the same contraption as AFD is founded in Darfur with same name - calition for freedom and democracy. He is not going to succeed. Eritrea is progressively becoming part of the Islamic crisis.

Ankasa, in case you don't know, there is only one historic nation that stands face to face with Arabization of the Horn. Eritrea without Ethiopia is a dead cat.

who care about the intention of isayas?, the main thing is how to remove the child killer meles and his regime...then we will have time to resolve the basic difference b/n Ethiopia and Eritrea....then i believe there will be peace and harmony in the region.

ONE UNITED ETHIOPIA!

askale dama wrote,

''meles is forcing shabia to join the arabs/muslims...'' -

for your information shabia joined the arab league a long time ago,

askale dama wrote,

''meles will kill asab''
for your information , asab has been dead ever since the woyane handed it over to shabia. only the vultures roam in assab.

askale dama, you seem to know nothing, and yet you try to impress others with a collection of words that do not make any sense or have any factual significance.

Woyane is killing Ethiopia and Ethiopians. The mission of woyane is robbing Ethiopa and looting Ethiopians. Woyane has one enemy, that is Ethiopia and Ethiopians. Woyane knows before Ethiopia and Ethiopians are not going to disappear from the Earth it can not build its ABAI TIGRE REPUBLIC.
For this reason woyane were killing fathers like Prof.Asrat and murdering all those children on the street. Woyane is killing now the elected Ethiopian leaders in its prison. For this crime woyane is getting a lot of money and weapon from its colonial masters. Ethiopia and Ethiopians are dying and crying for help. Ethiopia and Ethiopians have one enemy, that is this evil woyane.
If you want to do some good things to Ethiopia and for Ethiopians, fight this evil woyane murders and looters every where and support the freedom fighters with every means possible.

Dong

Askale Dama,

You may know how to write in English. But the ideas you are using to write on have neither facts nor reflecting it. Mr, TPLF and Shabia political annalist: you have no idea about the mind and desire to the vast majority of Ethiopias concerning the boarder and port issues with Eritrea.

After the independency almost all African states have got the right to the sea. The boarder demarcation between states conducted according to this fundamental issue. When the Ethiopian boundary (Eritrea as a federal state with in Ethiopia) recognised by UN as the rest of the nations did, her right to the sea was also recognised.

When Eritrean voted and preferred to become as one of the 14 provinces of Ethiopia, with Egypt direct involvement ELF created announcing independent. The matter of the fact is that UN recognised Eritrea as a federal state with in Ethiopia from the beginning. When the independent issue reached to UN after the so called Ethiopian govt (tigreans) and TPLF decided by themselves alienating the rest of the Ethiopian people keeping them silent under their gun, the matter had to be discussed again including the coas right to Ethiopia and the boarder issue, too.
The right to the sea deserves Ethiopia according to the international low as it was not discussed at the time because of Eritrea was inside Ethiopia. When Eritrea wanted independency UN needed to see the matters again including the reason why Eritrea was/is looking for it.

Asqualh Dema,

You are talking about Assab being abandoned by TPLF. TPLF is not representing Ethiopia. TPLF is the one fought against the Ethiopian people to the Eritrean Independency. Berbera or other Ports are not Ethiopian ports. Assab, massawa and any seaport so called Eritrea has is an Ethiopian port. The oldest and the mother of the axumite civilization(Ethiopia) had always a seacoast and will continue. UN need to discuss all the matters including the Afar, Irob and Kunnama issues. When an Egyptian UN secretary achieved the eritrean independency after US, France and Britain voted pro china against and Russia abstained without discussing the matters and no one was there to represent Ethiopia according to the Ethiopian people were looking, the so called Eritrean Independency was finalised with conspiracy against Ethiopia behind it.

Eritrea is no an independent state as the necessary issues to this independency were not discussed in the UN, among the people of Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopia also has no a legitimate govt to conduct this issue in the name of the country as Eritrea does. Somaliland has more right to become an independent state than Eritrea. Somaliland was a British colony for more years than Eritrea was. To me and the rest of Ethiopia, the boarder demarcation issue between Ethiopia and Eritrea will be a very long process with UN and people involvement. What about the Afars living in Ethiopia and Eritrea, Kunamas, and Irobs. This issue also need to be addressed before conducting any demarcation. We have also ask the reason why Eritrean territory is stretching along side the seacoast looking like a foot made path from Massawa to Assab? It was an Italian conspiracy to block Ethiopia from the sea for strategic reason as the sea was the only way to have contact with the outside world as plane, train, car or other transportation systems were not invented or not widely used at the time. As long as the Afar issue, the Irob and Kunnama issue is not solved and the independent issue again discussed and the Ethiopia sea coast right accepted, there will be no boarder demarcation as Shabia, TPLF, UN and other immoral nations and individuals looking for to put Ethiopia in a closed door. That will never happen as long as Ethiopians are still breathning.

Askale Dama,

The true intention of Issayas and meles is to cancel each other although they are doing this at a tremendous cost and suffering of both people. As we all are following the developments in the horn Issayas Afewerk seems to have a lot more cards to play with than meles does. Meles is being supported only by the CIA and a few Tigre ethnic from his clan. So the picture I believe is clear who would cancel who first.


Amantu

Amantu

Al Zinawi was cansling Ethiopia and Ethiopians. But now he added in his cansling list Somalia and Somalis. He has all support from his masters and CIA to cansle Ethiopia and Somalia. SO did with Eritra too. Al Zinawi is the worst sadist and terrorist ever seen in our region.

Amantu,

"As we all are following the developments in the horn Issayas Afewerk seems to have a lot more cards to play with than meles does. Meles is being supported only by the CIA and a few Tigre ethnic from his clan. So the picture I believe is clear who would cancel who first."

Yes Issayas has more bad and weak cards to play moving fast towards his total destruction leaving Eritrea a lawless with religion and Ethnic division. You mean his Arab Cards who are not able to do something about when their own region is became the breeding ground to those have hate and anger towards themselves and the world.
I never have been support an illegal and criminal groups in the name govt that are ruining the country for years(woyane). But their tie with you said CIA means they are already have won the battle with Shabia who is looking the Arabs that are not enough even for themselves. CIA means US. US means the closest to EU, japan and others. EU and US means Nato. It this not telling you something?

By the way don't give your valuable time thinking about Issayas success while he deserves a physiatrist hospital. He is a mad and blood trusty man. Do you know how many lives he killed and destruction caused for the last 40 years? He is born for negative action and outcome. What we have to understand here is that woyane is created, feed and got every possibility to be grown up to do actions the way Issayas and his shabia is doing for so long. Issayas is dead as meles will. Don't give them any value. In world politic, there is no freed forever especially criminals and weak such as Issayas and meles. We need to organise ourselves in a good way to become the next political friends to US, and the rest. No one will survive while ruling a big nation as Ethiopia does with the knowledge of ethnic policy and dividing the country according to their illegal and private benefit to take land from Gonder and wollo. If they didn’t introduce that policy which was written while they started a gorilla war years a go, Humera. Wolkite, tsegede and other fertile territories wouldn’t be part of Tigry and became a 100 thousands Tigres settlement from northern and central Tigry after conduction mass Ethnic cleansing against the Samaras from their natural home territory.

Asku,
It looks like you are touching subject near and dear to shabia. They want to hear what they want to hear - what you have stated is in the intrest of ethiop - their intrest is in war. Keep hitting them - Eritrea/Isayas are realy poor bully boy - they are hopless and usless. I never seen a country run like slaves, and they don't like it but they keep putting brave face.

Keep shining asku - all of you tatari shabia's on this page coming across as caring ethipians, the fact is eritrea is usless as a-hole as melese is he will choke you to oblivion and you know it. So, you are doing everything you can to undermine him. As much as I don't like Melese and his policies, if I were him, I wouldn't bit around the bushes in Somalia, I would go to the CANCER of the horn directly - go takeout Isayas at any cost. Other wise he will deal with all kind of Isayas BS for a while -

Hei Askale,

You have hit the bull's eye now! That was my argument ever since the AFD was introduced with its mysterious focus on "horn peace" and "future agreements with Eritrea" instead of unity of Ethiopia. Once I wrote Issayas intends to fry Ethiopia like ye gena dabo (to get Badme). Somalia is its fire from below while AFD is its fire from above.

I also agree with your observation that Meles and the Badme case had reduced Issayas to one of the most insignificant leaders in the world. This argument is also significant in that it has undressed Eritreans like Amantu and many others who were writing on this forum disguised as Ethiopians. Look how they moved swiftly to defend Issayas and in the haste they forgot to put their Ethiopian mask on.

My policy is if we are attacked as a country we should respond as a country. We are now being attacked as a country and we should defend ourselves as a country. Aweys and Issayas are not claiming Ogaden and Badme from the body of Meles or TPLF. They are claiming them from the body of Ethiopia. That makes it our concern, the concern of all Ethiopians. If anybody including the AFD is not concerned by this the problem is not politics; it is nationality. It means Ethiopians and Ethiopianess do not have the upper hand in the body in question.

There is no doubt that we will defeat both of our enemies. Because at all times there will be sufficent Ethiopianess to preserve Ethiopia for future generations

Yonas,

Have you noticed some individuals who are fast to react to Askale's statement without reading the whole story ?

I'm wondering they talk about democracy; where as they act like dictators. Is not that contradictory?

Hey guys, read completely first before running for reply regardless of the person who post it. Leave the person alone and concentrate on the topic and present your analysis or points you do agree or do not.
You guys are alergic of the name 'Askale' despite the fact she is presenting. You act like an accuser and a judge at the same time. What a tragedy! Show maturity by aiming your gun on ideas rather on a person. By the way, do you know everyone of us are entitled to say whatever we think is right without name calling?

United we'll win!

IP,

You finalised your posting saying "United we'll win!"

This is the cause we Ethiopian have been through since TPLF took power with GUN. What kind of unity you are talking about while the only basic policy and knowledge to the TPLF policy is Ethnic division and dividing the country without any justification for one reason which is to get reason to take vast and fertile territory from Gonder and wollo. What kind of unity you are talking about with illegal and voted out TPLF govt? Or are you saying your unity in the woyane camp? Make it clear.

As long as the elected and respected opposition leaders including the Addis Ababa Mayer are in Jail with fabrication cases and everything with the election issue is not solved, there will be no unity with your admired TPLF boys. One thing I agree with you is that Ethiopia will over come from any trouble mainly from woyane atrocity. It is just a matter of time. We have enough time although it is a very painful because of TPLF.

Askale Dama,

Do you think Ethiopia will be able to secure Djibouti port and abandon Asab in the near future?

looking forward to your intelligent analysis. Don't be affraid to answer my question.

It is the war between the two looters!!! on the resource of the powerless!!!!

Why Tegarus are looters, Amaras are unity-freaks and Oromos are separatists!!?

The enthusiasm and idea that AFD can be a way to bring specially the polarized Abeshas and Oromos to each other, to their common sense and to make them think and act reasonablly has engulfed a lot of people since the inception of the alliance. I personally tried enthusiastically to promote the success of the alliance for about two monthes. Unfortunately I encountered in different forums many extremist Abeshas and "Galla-phobics", who persistently preach anti-Oromo notions and against self-determination of this great nation, at the same time opposing every thing AFD. The "Galla-phobics" and extremists should never be allowed to get a chance to dismantle AFD. The issue of UNITY, SELF-DETERMINATION and INDEPENDENCE is not on which we can convince each other. Here based on the benefit they expect almost all Abeshas are for "UNITY" and the majority of Oromos (except few YEWAH/GARRAMII Oromos) are for SELF-DETERMINATION which can lead to Ethiopian unity or Oromian Independence based on free will of Oromos them selves with out any imposition from Abeshas.

What ever we preach, be it UNITY, SELF-DETERMINATION or INDEPENDENCE, primarily it is for the sake of economical benefit!! Unity, self-determination and independence per se are not the highest moral goods. They are the meanse to the end, to what ever is good in general and to economical gain in particular for those who preach them respectively. I need no discussion with you about it, but I just would like to leave for you the following interesting and simple analogy:

Let's assume a personified Tigray does have only 10 Birr, Amara 100 and Oromia 1000. Now these three try to agree on the way how to live together. There are three options:
1) They can live under the condition that one robing the others if he has pistol (power).
2) All live together united in which they use commonly and share equally what they do have in common (1110 birr: each taking 370).
3) They live separated and each using his own possesion (Tigray uses his 10 Birr, Amara his 100 and Oromia his 1000).

Any way, who do you think tends to robe the others, who do you think advertises unity and who do you think wants separate life? No question the person Tigray if he has pistol in his hand robes the other two, who do have more than what he does have. The person Amhara preaches unity, because he knows he gets more (which is 370 instead of his only 100) if unity is successfull. The person Oromia tries to resist both to hinder the lose he suffers (which is totally 630 Birr: 360 to Tegaru and 270 to Amara). So he rejects unity and struggles against roberry. He knows how much he looses!

So we now can see why Tegarus came with gun and loot what ever they can from Amhara, Oromia and others. We also understand why Amaras untiredly cry for unity, as if unity per se is an absolute moral virtue. It is not the unity what is important for them, but the "270 (370 - 100) birr" they gain if they live in unity with Oromia and other rich areas. That explains their schizophrenic charachter in which they on one side persistently "request" in Medrek and ER-forum that Tegarus better declare their independence and go to their "dry land", whereas on other side at the same time they persistently cry against the possible "secession" of Oromia. Their motto towards Oromia is: "CHIBIT KOLO YIZEH WEDE ASHARO TETEGA!!" They come to us with their meager resource (CHIBIT KOLO) and consume massively our abandont resource (ASHAARO). That is why, it is understandable if Oromos reject the Abesha type of unity in which the grand children of Minilik rule the whole corner of Oromia and consume the whole "ASHAARO" of Oromo people. Only fool Oromos cry for such unity and tolerate such robbery.

The alliance, AFD, is the attempt of Amaras and Oromos to get rid of the looters, so that the sharing of Amaras and the saving of Oromos may rise from "370 to 550 Birr". That is the win-win arrangement made between CUD and OLF. The question which remains to be answered is: what will happen after they get rid of the looters? Will OLF arrange to live further with only this almost half of its peoples' possesion at the hand of Oromos or will it also get rid of the sharing (consuming) Amaras, so that Oromos can own their whole "1000 Birr"?!!

There are three possibilities to be achieved:
1) Forging HAR (Horn of African Republic) in which the KILILS will be dismantled as extremist Abeshas wish to see. That meanse both the looters and the freaks continue to devour on the ressource of Oromia.

2) Formation of HAF (Horn of African Federation) in which the national states will have their own genuine autonomy and the looters and the freaks get advantage of Oromia's resource only indirectly through federal government.

3) Arrangement in a form of HAC (Horn of African Confederation) which enables all states to use their own resources and seek help only in case they are in crisis.

The last two piossibilities are the possible out come of the effort of AFD. Both can fullfill the goal of both self-determination and unity. OLF by advocating the very important element of democracy, i.e. self-determination, shows its commitiment to democracy. Unity can be the result of self-determination. Unity with out democratic decision of the public is dictatorial unification like that of unifying Jugoslavia by the dictator Marshal Tito. Independence with out genuine and free self-determination of the public is also dictatorial liberation like that of liberating Eritrea by dictator Isayas. So self-determination is the concept against both dictatorial liberation and dictatorial unification. Ethiopian "unification" starting from Menilik to Meles was dictatorial. CUD in AFD is now trying in a democratic way. Unfortunatlly the extremists still preach the unconditional unity (want to dictate unity) and reject the self-determination of Oromo people and others. Just as OLF is now a days reserved from liberation rhetoric and speaks only about self-determination, I do expect from CUD leadership and supporters to be reserved on their rhetoric about unity, on which they seem not to compromise. They also should concentrate on self-determination of the public at large. It is only the decision of the people which matters. So both pro-independence and pro-unity parties will just bring their arguement to the public when the time comes and then live according to the verdict. I would like to express my great complement to CUD and OLF leadership for their agreement on the basic need of freedom and democracy which can lead to the stable and new type of unity (unity of autonomous nations in which individual and collective rights will be fully respected).

The other option which actually is not in a sense of the alliance, AFD, is the establishment of independent states, like state of Oromia republic, Amhara, Ogadenia...etc. Then Oromia is the only master of its own "1000 Birr".

The three current enemies of AFD are:
1) TPLF: wants power by any meanse!! = dictatorial autocratic front

2) UEDF: wants unity by any meanse!! = dictatorial unification force

3) ULFO: wants independence by any meanse !! = dictatorial liberation front, but it is the best MEDIHANIT against the naturally dictatorial Abeshas.

AFD is theoretically the forum for moderates i.e for democratic unification forces like CUD and democratic liberation fronts like OLF, who struggle for the forging of freedom and democracy including self-determination to achieve either independence or unity according to the verdict of the public. CUD persisted to preach its unconditional unity and yet said nothing in support of self-determination of Oromos. OLF is just trying the alliance against the dictatorial nature of Abeshas. Abeshas can never be democratic: Tegarus' democracy excludes power transfer and Amaras' democracy excludes self-determination. Power transfer is a lose of "pistol", which Tegarus need for looting, that meanse it is a lose of "360 Birr". Self-determination is lose of "unity", which Amaras need to keep their empire, that meanse it is a lose of "270 Birr". Both excluded concepts are the core of true democracy. Unfortunatelly it is impossible to convince both Amaras and Tegarus on respective virtues of power transfer and self-determination. They can only be compelled to accept them. OLF is the power which tries to compell Tegarus to accept the democratic power transfer and Amaras to accept the democratic self-determination of peoples. AFD can be effective to compell Tegarus to give up power (profit) and yet the alliance of only pro-liberation oppressed peoples is essential to compell the Amaras to give up their colonies (profit)."

Gessit,

As you well know, our problem now is how to convince the people Tigre to ally with Ethiopian national interest so that they can tell Meles to ally with Ethiopians rather than trying to defeat the Ethiopian people and Isayas at the same time (or one next to the other).

My point is this. Meles made a major miscalculation in underestimating the level of his isolation during the May election and before. He will miscalculate again in the current situation. As you said, we make the distinction between Ethiopia and Meles, but I do not think any serious Ethiopian is going march to Badme with Meles. So long as Meles keeps CUD leaders in prison, and repress the people, he will remain hated and isolated leaving the field wide open for the enemies of Ethiopia.

Meles can not hold the opposition hostage under the pretext of national threat. Nor can he defeat both national opposition and the external enemies by himself. The lesson is Mengistu the dictator- fighting the separatisits and the people at the same time.

Meles needs to sit with the national opposition and consolidate Ethiopia. Short of that, the ball is up for grabs.

Askale,

You wrote "Meles made a major miscalculation in underestimating the level of his isolation during the May election and before". What I have been telling the opposition was slightly different. Everybody is expected to do politics by calculation. If Meles has managed to conduct a contested election, retain power, retain some international support (while losing some) and cause the opposition to disintegrate I believe his calculation has somehow worked. If the opposition have failed to get the support that is able to reverse the results of the disputed election, if they have got all their leaders jailed and if they have ended up being divided we say their calculation has not worked. Therefore what the opposition now need is not to learn how to dab Meles' achievement miscalculation but to take time and learn how to calculate for themselves.

You also wrote "Meles needs to sit (negotiate) with the national opposition (opposition outside parliament) and consolidate Ethiopia". Two parties sit for negotiation when they have something important to give eachother. The CUD had the capacity to give the EPRDF peace before Nov.2005. Therefore, the EPRDF was willing to negotiate. After the negotiation failed the EPRDF managed to get relative peace by force. Now CUD has almost nothing to give. Therefore, the EPRDF does not seem to see the benefit of negotiation or freeing the leaders. More importantly can the CUD negotiate outside AFD now? In turn, can the AFD negotiate without the consent of its host, Shabia? In time it will be Shabia which will have something to give the EPRDF and become a partner for negotiation. It will have Awey's and AFD's compromise to offer the EPRDF.

You also wrote: "Meles can not hold the opposition hostage under the pretext of national threat". What do you mean? Issayas and Aweys are the main threats. Has Ethiopia paid Issayas to back Aweys? Has she paid Aweys to claim her territory? In the contrary, I was telling the opposition that they are tending to hold our national security hostage demanding a ransom called negotiation. I am saying the problem of any body who intends to benefit from the threat on our national security is not political; it is a problem of nationality.It is a problem of who is dominant in that party.

Dear Askale Dama,

The more I read you the more I am convinced that you are a political light weight, in want of enlightenment. I shall take the liberty to enlighten you.

You asked me the following nonsense and responded with even a more nonsensical line: “Did you tell the world what Meles' intention is? No. Did tell us what Isayas intention is? No. Because you don't know” First of all, in politics intentions do not matter much. Isayas’s intention may be to colonize Ethiopia. It may be to dethrone Meles and put his stooge in his place. It could also be to get to the US by tormenting their poster child. Or even to force Meles to sign off Badme. The same applies to Meles. His intention could be to establish a Tigrayan dynasty. It could be to restore Ethiopia as a Christian Island. Or may be even to reclaim Assab along Badme.

If your primary objective is to build a free and democratic Ethiopia what matters is whether Meles is a partner or an enemy looking both the short and long interests of Ethiopia. What are the benefits and costs of allowing the tribal bandit to stay in power? What can the opposition do to make him a part of the effort to build a democratic Ethiopia. The same way your question should be can Isayas be a short or long term friend or enemy. Can he be used to advance our objective of building a democratic Ethiopia? What are the benefits and cost of doing so? Is there a danger with flirting with him?

You further wrote: “Why does Isays want to destroy Meles? What is the objective of destroying Meles? You have no clue. You are angry because I precisely zeroed in on the nature of the pawns.”

First, you seem to be worried about Meles’s destruction. That seems to be why you are asking the same question twice in one line. No you did not zero in on any matter of significance. You are a morone to zero in on geopolitical pawns. Please note that Moron is (spelled with “e” at the end following Mekamu – aka Dan Quale)

Ato Mamo,

I agree with your analysis. You are probably one of the ost astute political observer on this forum. I have read your debate with both Askale and Mr. Wag. There is no doubt in my mind that you are cnsistent in yur analysis and mostly right on target. What I do not understand is why you add silly lines and engage in "Tera Sedeb"? You lose followers and some people are repulsed by it.

Please stick to the point and keep enlightening the likes of Askale, who I am convinced is pro Meles in a fundamental way. as you rightly notd her criticism of Meles is light, but her analysis is designed to give him a brathing room.

S. Hashu

Gessit,

Meles did not survive his the May election not due to his correct estimation of the national anger and ability of the opposition. Meles survived through his monopoly of the means of violence. The people did not have their own militia to enforce their will (ther vote). Currently, he is pretty much riding the global and regional wave of crisis. so Gessit, Meles is not continuing to rule by superior policy, but by means of fear, arms, police, and international backing in the new cold war.

As far as negotiating chips, I agree with you that if you want to bend a dictator to negotate you need a decisive balance of power in your favor. CUD does not have that power as we speak. Nor AFD is going to do that job.

My comment about national reconciliation and strengthening Ethiopia's position in the region assumes that our national interest as the driving motive. Meles may muddle along through the repression of his own citizens by serving the west and the opposition may sleep with the devil to win or survive the day. Both policies hurt Ethiopia - both in the short and long term. They are policies of anger, vengence, and desperation.

Meles should have no other incentive to resolve internal conflicts and strengthen Ethiopia's position. Nor should he be rewareded by upsurge of nationalism every time he ignites a regional crisis against Ethiopia. That is what I meant by holding the opposition hostage. The Ethiopian people must continue to isolate Woyane until they change their behavior.

Askasa,

You are capable of insulting and asking. You have to tell us the intention behind Meles and Isayas in Somalia. If you don't know it, simply admit. kebero besew eij yamir.... It is easy to read other's comment and insult it. If you know the real dynamics, tell us. I have not read a single coherent position from you on the horn.

Askale,

The reason Meles and Isayas are in Somalia is to satisfy teir ego that they are regional powers. Neither is. To be a regional super power you need economic power. Both Ethiopia and Eritrea are fed by food aid. It is comical that they do what they are doing. You are either stupid to ask the question you asked or you are trying to divert the attention of the opposition for real issue in Ethiopia o a non critical issue in Soalia. Ethiopia is bleeding from TPLF and you try to take our attention to international terrorism. It takes a morone (with an "e") to fall for you.

From the Bench

From the Bench,

I like the way you answer when you are asked a question unlike others who can't even elaborate on their claims "Assab port is still used by Ethiopia till Djibiuty is secured".

Keep up your good job!

Ankasa,
Let me show show you how stupid you are. I wrote above in my first post:

"HE (Isayas)WANTS TO GAIN SOME LEVEL OF REGIONAL IMPORTANCE."

Now go back to what you just said about the two trying to be regional powers.

What do you think of 500 Eritrean soldiers in Somalia?

Doro, ee, all pro-Isayas lot:

Here is something you might believe. Reuters wrote:

"Diplomats believe Ethiopia and Eritrea — who went to war in 1998-2000 and still wrangle over their border — are using the standoff between Somalia’s interim government and newly powerful Islamists as a proxy conflict for their own feud."

'Proxy conflict for their own feud'
Enjoy the stroy.

Eritrea "actively supports" al Qaeda - Ethiopia
Saturday 29 July 2006 00:07.


July 28, 2006 (NAIROBI) — Ethiopia accused its neighbour and foe Eritrea on Friday of "actively supporting" al Qaeda, in its strongest attack yet on Asmara over the escalating crisis in neighbouring Somalia.

Diplomats believe Ethiopia and Eritrea — who went to war in 1998-2000 and still wrangle over their border — are using the standoff between Somalia’s interim government and newly powerful Islamists as a proxy conflict for their own feud.

Addis Ababa has sent troops into Somalia to protect the government, according to witnesses, while Asmara is believed by regional diplomats to be arming the Islamists who took Mogadishu and other southern towns from U.S.-backed warlords last month.

Addis Ababa regards the Islamists as terrorists linked to both al Qaeda and the Somali radical group al-Itihaad al-Islaami, which was all but obliterated by Ethiopian forces in the 1990s.

"The Eritrean government is actively supporting the al-Itihaad and al Qaeda extremist leaders who oppose the widely accepted and recognized transitional government," an Ethiopian Ministry of Information statement said.

"If there is anyone who is reluctant to support peace and stability in Somalia, it is only the Eritrean government that is trying to disturb the region by allying itself with extremist elements," the statement added.

Addis Ababa denies its troops are in Somalia, while Asmara denies funnelling military aid to the Islamists.

(Reuters)

The statement is an inaccurate representation of the current situation in Somalia for many reasons.

The article alleges Ethiopia and Eritrea "are using the standoff between Somalia’s interim government and newly powerful Islamists as a proxy conflict for their own feud.". But this is nonsense. For one, Ethiopia is doing the actual fight in Somalia with initially 5000 troops, therefore it is not a proxy war for her. Second, there is no reason for Ethiopia to fight Eritrea in Somalia when it can do it in Badme or Assab or somewhere in the North, and repeat victory like last time.There isn't a single Somalian to fight on the side of Ethiopia - Just recently, the Ministers of the transitional government of Somalia that Ethiopia is claiming to support resigned over Ethiopias involvement and major pro-Ethiopia warlords are joining IUC on a daily basis. Hence, if the allegation of the article is true, then Ethiopia has already lost the war.

In my opinion, the reasons woyane wants a conflict in Somalia are two fold. First, they want to destruct the attention from the current political turmoil inside the country. Second, they want to picture themselves as anti-Terrorism ally of the West and lure some financial aid and break the current isolation that Meles is soaked. But going war with the later reason is suicidal, because Meles is considered a liar by the US in regards to Somalia and he has lost the trust of UK and EU after the May 2005 Election in which he cold-bloodedly murdered innocent youth and civilians. The US is also known to hate weak entities which woyane is the weakest of all the political players in Ethiopia at the moment. They are just waiting for the opposition to sort their differences and be ready to assume power. Once you loose the backing of your own people as a government, then the US consider you a looser incapable of executing orders.

ee,

So you have better data than US & UK intelligence? Hmmmmm!

Askale,

Once aain you are showing off your spectacular stupidity in front of the cyber public. The US policy statements are rarely supported by data, if at all. If you believe that you must be happy when they tell you that Meles is building a democratic system in Ethiopia. They have been telling you this for over a dacade. Even Mr. Wag will laugh at you on this. He may even reduce your weekly pay if you continue to post garbage like this.

You asked for my opinion about 500 Eritrean soldiers in Somalia. I do not think much about it. That is a marginal issue. A side show if you will. My energy is focused on buiding a democratic Ethiopia. Your mandate is to divert attention from Meles to Isayas. That too is a side show for me.

From the Bench

Doro,

If you want to measure the accuracy of my analysis, read under-secretary Frazer' s statement in Congo.
Word for word, she said Meles and Isayas want to take their border conflict (Badme) and move it to Somalia. Now read my title. You can not get any closer than that. Call me moron at the cost of your stupidity.

Askale Dama,

You see how your argument does not hold water even for few days. You had been bombarding us with your assertion that Ethiopia must fight terrorism in Somalia and the opposition must follow the same stand to align with the US. You had been telling us it would be US' proxy war; you were telling us CUD would be finished if it does not support a conflict with the ICU; you told us AFD is a terrorist organization because it does not support woyane in its adventure in Somalia. Now all of the sudden, you are citing US's statement that the war in Somalia is between woyane and Eritrea(second Badme war). Which one is it? Should we believe your first or latest argument? You see, you are taking public statements at face value without inducing any political knowledge to read between the lines.

It is not the first time the US condemn Meles' involvement in Somalia's affair. They have been warning him for a while now. And recently, they are telling the world that Ethiopia and Eritrea are fighting each other in Somalia. This is called hitting tow birds with one stone. The US hates both of them it is going to punish them by accusing them of fighting each other, instead of rewarding Meles for fighting terrorism as it had been your claim and analysis for a long time. Can you say now that CUD's position of not meddling with the affairs of Somalia is exactly similar to the US?

It is not surprising to see you flip-flopping as it is a result of underdeveloped desire of politics in you. I suggest you read a little more books from the public library and less Internet and public statements . And most the latest books you find at bookstores are not good sources of knowledge as they are driven by money for their existence after September 11.

ee,

If you can not read, that is not my problem. I have two long threads on this issue. Read all of them critic me. I am precisely consistent and accurate on the things I said. There are things I do not know and my analysis may be incomplete, but not wrong so far.

EE, here is your problem. You can not see all of the different motives and intention in play. US has its own intention and strategy. From day one I had said that US will push some kind of negotiation for moderate government. If that fails, US will fight rradical islam. So from the stand point of US Meles is suppose to defend the TUG and pressure awayes to negotiate. Period. He is not suppose to have his own plan. That is what Frazer told the two local bullys.

The worlords have not only TUG interest, but each one want to be dominate the others. There are many many intentions and objectives each want to achieve while is the game.

ee, this is very elementary to repeat. In the situation, Ethiopia as a nation, as country has separate interest. In what Meles does, somethings may relate to our interest such border and port issues. Somethings may strictly power game with Isayas and for the domination of TPLF over all of us.

Your task is to analysis. Analysis means to beak a complex phenomena down its components and examine it colsely. That is your problem.

Even in Frazer's statement, she said the focus was the legal transitional government. Every basic thesis I had still holds. My weakness is that my picture does not go far.

Notice the involvement of Iran, kazakistan, the degree of Egyptian involvement (I thought they side US because Mubarek has his own problem with radicals) Libya etc.

In other words, the two blocs are the christian and Muslim blocks... not radical or moderate it appears.
So, my analysis needs enrchment, but the basic theses are still good.

Read everything I wrote on the issue. Also don't waste your psychic energy to find me wrong. That is the issue. I don't care if I made one wrong analysis. My perspective is good, my position is. Ethiopia has enemies, we need to fight them. Meles is an enemy we need to fight him. Isayas is an enemy we should not sleep with him. OLF is separatist, we should not appease them. Get my point. Who care if make mistake? I know my politics. I predicted on Day one that AFD will destroy CUD. Look where CUD is....

I don't think I know much more than others. But I say what think without fearing insults. That makes the whole difference.

Askale Dama,

Oh may God, do I have to spell everything to you? You are still coming up with "incomplete" analysis. Let's see some of your statements and figure out the flaw in them.

You said "US will push some kind of negotiation for moderate government. If that fails, US will fight rradical islam. " How is US going to fight radical Islam? America has never waged war in the life of this world against radical Islam. Actually, the recent war in Iraq was against a very secular Sadam government. If you cite Afganistan, I would tell you that it is against terrorism not radicalism. In fact, US is very friendly with most of radical Islam governments like Saudi Arabia and the likes.

Next, you said " The warlords have not only TUG interest, but each one want to be dominate the others.". Their interest in TUG would be before the rise of ICU, but then again, they were fighting amongst themselves. Now they are joining and supporting ICU over TUG. Of course, they tried to play the terrorism card, as Meles is doing now, to lure US help to no avail. Meles is failing too in this regard from the start.

You also said "somethings may relate to our interest such border and port issues". Meles willingly gave up Asab port. Currently, we are using more ports than we actually need - Djibouti, Hargesa, and Mombasa with a possibility to use Port Sudan if we want. What is our interest in using the Mogadishu port, the only one that is not available to Ethiopia at the moment? Is this the national interest you are talking about?

lastly, you said " Meles is an enemy we need to fight him. Isayas is an enemy we should not sleep with him.". Meles is an enemy because he is(Today) killing, detaining and terrorizing us. So he is an enemy we have to fight NOW. As for Esayas, well, he used Ethiopia to enrich his country with the help of woyane. There is no reason why we should not use him to fight Meles now. You know about convenience, right? Be smart girlfriend.



I

Sorry about the missing words and pselling. My mind is going fastern than my fingers. You have not read my complete commentary on Somalia. So no more chit chat on this issue. I have answered all of your questions for the last 2 weeks.

Askale Dama,

You said "Sorry about the missing words and spelling. My mind is going fastern than my fingers." This not only the case of mind and finger, but also soul and mind. You see you speak with your finger rather than your head. No wonder your analysis wrong and "incomplete".

You said "You have not read my complete commentary on Somalia." Unfortunately, I have. But I got no substance out of your piece of garbage analysis.

You said "So no more chit chat on this issue." I agree. It is better to leave this sensitive issue to the expert is. You are really out of place regarding politics.

You said "I have answered all of your questions for the last 2 weeks." I only had one question which you failed to answer as of now. If you are willing to answer it now I will ask you again. It was like this: Do you think Ethiopia will secure the Djibouti port and abandon using Asab? It was a follow-up question to your statement that reads "If Meles succeeds in securing port use in Djibouti and Hargessa, he would kill Assab."

Lastly, I like to say to you that you can't debate anybody , but what you can do is spit garbage on this forum believing it is analysis of some sort. Well, I would not blame you when you are completely deaf to listen, and totally ignorant to read materials and learn from them. But as you said you are good at saying things without thinking. Keep up the good work.

ee,

I have to go back and see what you were saying about AFD. I am sure you called all kinds of names. Well, AFD is not dead now, it is also the proverbial grand teletafi. Dawud and Solomon's horse into Meles palance. Say what you wish. I know my politics. Did I kill AFD or not?

do you remember my argument about democracy and ethnocracy, that there was no difference between AFD and EPRDF. Was I right or not? What is Beyene, Lidetu and Dawud are doing as we speak with Carter. FIY, AFD is dead. It is no more Ethiopian problem.

All this crap you hear about Eritrea this, Solomon that, Meles this, Daud that.... different act of the same menagna drama. Soon, the pendllum will return to its orginal angle.

Bye

Askale Dama,

Are you changing the subject? It is your own thread. It is upto you if you want to surrender. But the subject is "The Second Badme War By Proxy" - if you need reminding.

EE

Please do not waste your time with Askale. She does not engage in good faith. Shelies, she denies, she changes subject. This is why I have stopped engaging her. She is Mr. Wag's foot soldier.

From the Desk

A july 26, 2006 comment. Do we have a proxy war or not?

The proxy war will turn real pretty soon!